Two species of machines: peaceful machines and top predator weapons

There is no myth more resistant in economics and abstract history than the myth that metal and machines are always good to man. This is not true. Machines of metal are rather like the fruits of the tree of science, sometimes symbiotic to man and sometimes able to kill us. Moreover the most evolved metal-species at any time of history are weapons. The first metal-species to appear in history were weapons. Most of the extinctions of “organisms of history” have been caused by weapons and hordes of warriors that carried them. The most expensive machines are weapons. And the great company-mothers of the economic ecosystem have been reproducers of weapons, since the first company, reproducer of gunboat machines, was founded in Holland.

So Boeing makes peaceful planes and bombers, Mercedes made cars, and the tanks of Hitler... Railroads were used both to take goods to cities, and to transport people to concentration camps... They are evolved in waves of machines, which mutate from peaceful to war form, every cycle of war. Let us consider thus how their mutation has caused the main wars of recent history.

We should talk of machines rather as “biological species” of metal, composed like many other biological species of life of “bodies of energy” and “minds of information”. With that view in mind, the industrial “evolution” evolves and reproduces those “species of metal” in three clear periods of time which signal the great cycles of peace and war of the modern World:

I Horizon (XVIII-XIX centuries). Reproduction of “metal-bodies” (gunboats, railroads).

II Horizon (XX century). Reproduction of “metal-heads” (Radio-ears, TV-eyes, and chips=Metal brains).

III Horizon. Fusion of both components, and reproduction of “sensorial machines” or robots (XXI century).

Before those great evolutionary centuries of machines there have been massive social, political and economical crises, which resulted in great wars. The arrival of the Industrial Evolution in Europe required enormous changes in European societies, which took place after the 25 years of the Napoleonic Wars. The II Industrial Evolution, the evolution of metal-minds, was preceded by the cataclysm of the first and second World war. Will the III Industrial Evolution, the age of robotics, require such a crisis? Since we are now at the beginning of this third period, it is important to understand the evolutionary cycles of machines if we want to allay the worse consequences of an economical crisis: a period of war.

Wars For Profit. The Cycles Of Market Wars

Any species which requires a certain energy to reproduce and survive, enters into a periodical crisis of growth when there is no more energy to feed its growth, or when they have saturated the ecosystem which they live from. Machines survive in two environments. They are used by human consumers to enhance their information and energy skills, and they substitute workers who have less information or energy skills than those machines.

A crisis of reproduction of machines occurs when they have substituted all the workers doing a certain job, or when they have saturated the field of consumers who use them. In either case the excessive reproduction of machines, cannot continue, and companies enter into a crisis of reproduction that has very negative consequences for mankind.

If we talk of work-machines the negative consequences of their excessive reproduction for human beings is clear; the extinction of workers. In the competence for jobs, humans are replaced by machines, which are preferred to human beings. The process is simple, it is called productivity-cost. Companies use a mathematical equation to compare workers and machines

man=salary =price=cost=machine

which allows, against all ethical contention, the replacement of abstract humans by machines, comparing them in terms of energy or information skills, through a number: the cost-price. It is a myth that humans compete with humans in an industrial environment. They compete mainly with machines. Yet since humans do not evolve as fast as machines do, sooner or later a certain job is done by machines, and humans enter unemployment. They become extinct as workers.

Thus, in each of the three periods of the Industrial evolution human workers are displaced by these machines. Physical machines displaced first human-energy workers. Then human mental workers were displaced by metal-heads. Now human workers of all kinds are displaced by robotics. Each of these cataclysms provoked massive unemployment, social unrest and a political crisis in the past which derived itself into war.

Wars are profitable for companies and governments, since you consume=kill more machines in times of war than in times of peace. Of course, when company-mothers reproduce more machines they also increase their profits, and thus in search of profits, most of the great crises of excessive reproduction of machines have been solved by switching production to weapons, paying war lobbies, and selling those weapons to governments. These corrupted governments will declare war in order to consume those weapons.

Although this may be hard to swallow, it is true. The cycles of reproduction and extinction-consume of Top Predator machines are economical cycles that have caused the wars in modern history. Those cycles of reproduction of machines are simple:

excessive reproduction -> saturation of the ecosystem -> shift to war machines -> expansion of the machine by war -> destruction of machines consumed by soldiers -> unlimited reproduction -> economical boom -> massive war

As we have said many times, the main cause of war casualties, is the fact that all machines have two basic species: the weapon-predator, and the peaceful species. The car is a peaceful tank. The plane is a peaceful bomber. The robot is a peaceful terminator. The boat is a peaceful gunboat. The same company-mothers reproduce both kinds of machines. So for companies there is no difference between one product and the other. If they cannot reproduce a peaceful machine, they will reproduce a weapon, and sell the weapon. Why? Because Company-mothers do act with a single aim: to reproduce.

The mandate of behavior of company-mothers is a biological mandate: “Evolve and multiply your machine, your sons”. All companies and the governments they control through lobbies obey such a mandate, over any human rights of workers and consumers. Such a mandate implies in biological terms, that the reproduction of machines cannot stop, and if there is need to eliminate human workers to put machines in their place, or to transform consumers of electrical appliances into humans consumed by weapons, it will be done.

Most wars could be prevented through diplomatic efforts, or using international organizations. Instead, they are used as a means to increase profits. The goal of companies, to produce profits, creates war. The machines with the higher costs are always weapons. In order to increase profits, companies invent weapons using the latest technology; the cost is incidental, since companies can create money-orders that people will obey, merely reproducing shares, in the stock-market, almost for free.

Forget the myths about scarcity of money. Money is a bit of information, and as such very easily to reproduce, since information has minimal energy, and can be reproduced in unlimited quantities. This is what companies do in stock-markets. The myth of scarcity is just an economical myth to hold stock-money in a few hands, and prevent the complaining of the people. Yet since stock-money, the value of a company, is related to the quantity of products the company reproduces, companies have as only aim to reproduce their machines in any of their two species, weapons or peaceful machines.

More over since the most complex machines are weapons, they are obviously the most “valuable” metal species, the ones with higher price. Hence the machines that require the maximum use of money. That is why in wars the entire economic ecosystem thrives. The world becomes a machine-money ecosystem. The monetary mass of nations grows. Companies and governments reproduce more money, as they make more weapons, and humans become activated by monetary-orders as catalyzers of weapons evolution and reproduction till the verge of exhaustion.

Weapons have the higher prices of bio-economies, and the maximum cascade demand in all metal industries (they increase the demand of all other metal products that are components of such a “perfect” machine organism). Weapons increase the overall profits of the Top Predator companies in any economy.

Further on all companies profit when a Top Predator nation wins a war, since then the winner can prey entirely over the “victim” ecosystem, as any top predator does over the victim it hunts.

The brutality of a pack of wild dogs eating up a gazelle is the same organic brutality of a herd of companies which have conquered a nation. The victim has no rights, except to die. Its cells are murdered, its information system (money) is absorbed, or extinguished (laws, culture). Its energy systems depleted. Often the victor will “inoculate” on that corpse its own offspring (once their cells-people are massacred, corpses become insects, nations become colonies...).

It is then self-evident that when a company-mother, or herd of companies who reproduce a top predator machine, feels their machines are more powerful than the machines of rival systems, and territories, it will try to provoke an economic war, and conquer other countries. This is what Holland first, then England, latter Germany and today America have been doing for centuries. Those nations who have hold the top predator weapon-machines of each age of the Industrial Evolution have provoked with more or less hypocrisy (a caring mask to cheat humans into collaboration), the main wars of modern history. War is a preying reality, that modern companies seek for to expand the reproduction and sale-profits of their machines. To do so, companies who seek war, ally with politicians who like to direct the process and share the spoils. Political lobbyists at the service of companies act as a bridge between both systems of power.

The cumulative greed of company-mothers, that want to reproduce top predator machines, their owners, the ari-stocrats of today, that want to have unlimited supplies of money, and the politicians and military that want to use them, causes modern, economical wars:

In the graph, we can see how the demand for weapons created by second World War multiplied also the money of the American economy. Both systems are symbiotic. The price of a machine in money represents the “biological efficiency” of such machine as a system of energy or information. Since weapons are the top predator machines they have maximum value. Besides, weapons die in wars, and so they have to be reproduced in growing numbers, to substitute weapons spent in war. This further increases the quantity of money won by companies to develop the reproductive process. The result is that stocrats make also more money. In II World War, the income of the rich grew exponentially, while the “Wealth of Nations” in words of Adam Smith, grew even more as more machines were created and destroyed in battlefields. When the War ended, again the “Wealth of Nations” slowed down, and so did the main consequence of that Wealth: the death of Mankind.

What all those statistics do not explain is that the preying relationship between machines and men turns upside down in wars. The perfect machine, the top predator weapon, is not “consumed”, destroyed by the weaker human species, as it is the “peace product”, the human-friendly machine. Instead, it is the top predator weapon who preys on man, who consumes man, who kills the soldier. So when peace machines are converted to top predators, as it happened when the cars of the 30s, were converted into tanks; consumers are converted in flows of soldiers, and top predator machines consume them in war.

Companies could produce only peace products, if governments were ruled by economic ideas in favor of man, who in their own profit will prevent all wars. Yet “ethonomists” in favor of the reproduction of human goods, do not rule our societies. Companies and politicians to the service of “ari-stockrats” do. So they behave in a total selfish way. What they do is to look for profits. When they can no longer keep growing producing peace machines (since very human has his car, his radio, his TV), they search for new ecosystems and ways to expand that reproduction. The only way they have manage to do it so far is by means of war. So when a “peace product” saturates the ecosystem, the market, as in nature, the company-mothers try to invade new territories with new offspring. Companies make then weapons and war empties the stock of products much faster, consumed by human soldiers, forcing new production, new sales and new profits.

The result is that related to the expansive ages of those stock-companies and their products, we have had periodic world-wide wars, which were a direct result of the over-production of Top Predator weapons by stock-companies and National Armies. It is then clear that modern wars are economic processes, embedded in the very same structure of “monetary and machine reproduction”.

Since the evolution of technology makes each new lethal machine much more able to kill humans, there is also a progression in the number of casualties that each World War causes. The progression is almost geometric: in each new World War, 10 times as many people die than in the previous one. If this progression continues; 50 million people died in World War II, in two more war cycles, most humans may die. In the next cycle 500 million may die. In two more cycles, 5000 million humans may die.

Main cycles of Industrial war: The American war cycle

All machines go through 3 phases, when discovered they are fixed, then they diminish in size, and become used as a transport system, finally they are used in war. Information machines also go through the same process. In the photo, the first computer, Eniac, diminishing in size, becoming mobile, and finally being used to create better machines of war.

The cycles of war have not only an economical, but a human cause: therefore it has a periodicity similar to that of the generational cycle, due to the fact that after 3 generations, people seem to forget what war did... As generations pass, war comes again as the solution to problems.

War Ages: 1861---------75 years---------1936----------72 years------2008.

We have data about those cycles. We know that the main long cycle of economic activity is the long 70-90 year cycle, the Kondratiev cycle. That 80 year cycle of economic activity is a cycle of evolution and re=production of machines, caused by a leading machine, that reproduces in great numbers, and acts as the locomotive, the engine of the entire Industrial ecosystem. however when that machine has been overproduced and saturates the market, there is a crisis, and the cycle of economical “bonanza” ends. Then a massive crisis takes place till a new machine is found, and reproduced again in great numbers, creating a new cycle.

The first cycles were caused by the reproduction of gunboats in the XVII and XVIII Century. Then in the XIX century railroad production caused two cycles, the first ending in 1848, and the second in 1928, in which production of railroads and cars saturated the market. The present Kondratiev cycle is caused the massive reproduction of metal-heads (chips, mobiles, telecoms). What happens when the “bonanza” of those cycles ended? This is a historic theme. The entire economic ecosystem enters in crisis, company-mothers no longer thrive. They throw workers, close assembly lines. Social unrest multiplies. Politicians are blamed. The entire world enters in crisis. And two possible solutions are implemented.

Either the economy reproduces massively human goods, to substitute the reproduction of machines, as socialist parties always try to do... or they reproduce weapons and consume the in war, giving again profits to those companies of metal-goods.

You might think that nations would choose the first option to get out of the crisis. That nations will massively reproduce money, no longer in stock-markets of technological goods, but with government deficits, and create great plans of investment in human goods, as Roosevelt tried to do with the New deal, as Keynes advised governments... Well they don't. Instead they make weapons as Hitler said to German companies, or the very same Roosevelt did at the end of the thirties.

Why governments are so absurd and decide the wrong policies, to make weapons, instead of making human goods? because they do not govern under the will of the people, but company-mothers of metal-goods, control our governments. So instead of creating policies that could profit most human beings, and foster the reproduction of food, health-care, education, free time, roads, housing etc. Companies pay lobbies that convince governments to make weapons and make war... In all those crisis, the social unrest, social revolution and attempts of left-parties and workers to create a welfare state to get out of the crisis, have been drown by the policies of company-mothers, lobbies, stocrats and their hired politicians, who preferred to make war, consume the obsolete workers as soldiers in battlefields, put new machines instead of them, multiply the reproduction of weapons, make huge profits, and push history a little bit towards our collective extinction.

This is why the Kondratiev cycles coincide with a decade of delay, in which those social revolutions are destroyed, with the historic cycles of war. Indeed, in history we know that the cycles of war coincide with a decade of delay with the Kondratiev cycle. At this point is when the key question comes to any thinking mind. Two cycles with the same periodicity and similar timing have to be related, have to be symbiotic: one has to provoke the other. The cycle of great international wars, lasts also ±80 years, and it is parallel to the cycle of economical activity...

So we relate both cycles, the economic cycle of ±80 years, and the cycle of wars. Which causes which? Again the answer is obvious according to temporal, causal logic: the first one to happen in time, causes the second one. Yet the first cycle is the economical cycle of overproduction of machines. It precedes the cycle of war a decade. So overproduction of machines causes massive wars. The car overproduction of 1929 was the cause of II WW, the war of tanks and planes. The railroad overproduction of 1848, was the cause of the Wars of railroads of the 1850s and 1860s (secession war, German wars, Crimean wars).

If the cycle continues the crisis of overproduction of computers and robots in the 2008s, will cause the robotic wars of the 2010s and 2020s, that might extinguish history. Such is the future, we can foresee if abstract economists, with their promotion of machines at all cost keep directing our nations. Are those crisis taking place also in the History of America? Yes they do.

The cycle of war and Economic activity is also the key to an analysis of the history and future of America. Let us explain mathematically and politically that American cycle. The reproduction of machines, and their economic activity can be followed mathematically in the activities of stock-markets. They are the economic brain that invents money and delivers orders to companies, to reproduce machines. On the other hand, recent history provides us with an enormous quantity of data, about American wars.

So, it is easy to explain the relationship between economic cycles, stock-market cycles, political and military cycles, just looking at a few graphs of American stocks... and looking how overproduction crisis cause stock-crashes, and soon lobbies pay dramatic politicians to declare war...

The clearest proof of the relationship that exists between economical cycles of reproduction of machines and cycles of war, can be found in the behavior of stock-markets which measure the reproduction of machines by “company-mothers”.

The stock-market is the “bank” of companies. Companies invent money in the stock market, inventing stock-paper. Those shares are then valued according to the perspective of profits a company has. However, because stock-holders have the enormous privilege of determining the price of company shares, speculators tend to overprice them in order to obtain free money. Only when there is strong evidence that the reproduction of machines is excessive, do markets crash. It is then, when the cycle of war begins…

The next graph of American stocks show that American wars come every 80 years, 10 years after a crash of excessive reproduction of Machines and stock-paper. We can localize the two main war crises of America, as in many other nations, at the beginning of the three periods of the Industrial Evolution. The Civil war started at the beginning of the first Industrial Evolution in America (age of railroads). The World War started at the beginning of the second Industrial Evolution (age of Metal-minds). We are now starting the third Industrial Evolution (age of Robotics and networks).

The crises of reproduction of machines in fact are “announced” by mini-crisis. Those mini-crisis have three peaks after which companies switch to war production, pay lobbies to provoke war and through war the product is consumed and the company comes out of the crisis. The decisions that politicians will have to take over the next decades can be greatly helped by the comprehension of Global cycles of political and economical activity.

How can we predict the cycle? According to the cycle there is previous to the war a mini-crisis of overproduction of machines, 8 years before (what the economists call the short cycle of economical activity). This mini crisis foresees the big economic crisis (what the economists call the long cycle of economic activity).

Last year there was a mini-crisis of over production of computer technology. I predicted that crisis and a possible “splendid little war”, implemented by war lobbies to solve it, in several articles I wrote on the matter. That crisis was to be similar to the mini-crisis of 1921, or 1837 (over production of cars and railroads).

It did happen and “coincidentally” we had a small war in Kosovo that year, which pushed up Wall Street 1000 points and sunk the Euro, the rival currency to the American dollar...

So we are now entering the last decade of the cycle. We are now in the age of excessive reproduction of computers and the first mini-crisis foreseen in a previous article published on the net in 1996 has already taken place. If we look at the crisis of 1929, it also started with a mini-crisis in 1921.

According to which there should be a “big crisis” of over production of computers, in 2008 (similar to the 1848, and 1929 crisis of railroad and car over production). That crisis might turn into the Robotic Wars... around 2018... in the same way as the crisis of over production of railroads in 1848, led us ten years later into the Civil and German Wars won with railroads, and the crisis of production of cars in 1929, led to World War II in 1939, won with tanks=cars and planes=bombers...

Hence we are now in the “happy 20s” of creation of wealth with computers, which will be followed by the critical 30s, with a full crisis of excessive reproduction of computers, which can be solved either with “butter” o “terminators”. The parallelisms are awesome. The happy 20s were an age of massive speculation in car companies, the top predator product at the time, which today is the computer. The rich became much richer because of the excessive speculation in car shares, which were overvalued, as if the reproduction of such machines could go on forever. At the same time the middle and lower classes were losing their jobs to the new systems of reproduction of machines (chain production). Today they are losing their jobs on a worldwide scale to robots and computers. Politicians were corrupted and did not want to interfere with the speculative process. The growing poverty of the masses by lack of credit in human goods, all used by the stock market, went largely unnoticed. Suddenly the bubble economy exploded since the poor had no jobs or income to buy cars. Yet the system did not acknowledge these errors and it did not change policies to promote credit in human goods. Instead companies transformed the top predator product, the car, into a tank and their governments went to war. If Economists today do not acknowledge the nature of such war-economical crises, and change their policies to overproduce human goods; if politicians do not stop the influence of lobbies, and their selfish nationalistic policies and accept the rule of International organisms, when the massive crack on computer speculation takes place at the end of this decade, it is very possible that companies will switch production to security products and weapons. Then, the spiral of neofascism, police states, military lobbyism and robotic wars will start.

The railroad wars of the 1860s, were partially caused by the Railroad lobbies of Germany and New England after a big crash in railroad shares (Mr. Lincoln had been a lobbyist for the Illinois Railroad Company for many years). The tank-bomber wars of the 1940s were caused by the iron, plane and car industry of Germany, when, after the general collapse of those industries in the aftermath of the 20s crisis, those industries financed Hitler. The probable robotic wars of the 2020s between America, and some Third world nation, even the Chinese, if they come about into a new weapons race, will be a part of that cycle as a consequence of an excessive reproduction of computers, and the lobbyism of the main companies of America that make the bodies of metal, metal-heads, and robots of those future wars.

We are now in the final decade of the economic cycle of metal-communicators and computers, which have lead industrial growth since the war caused by car over production.